Craps Dice Odds and Probabilities

Posted by admin | Craps Dice Odds & Probabilities | Sunday 11 January 2009 12:43 pm

Craps has the deserved reputation of being the most entertaining and intense table game offered at casinos. And it’s also very player friendly with lots of options, strategic considerations and winning opportunities. You even get to control the power and angle of the roll. All craps players need to know the odds of rolling the dice.  In order to fully understand how good your chances are at winning, it is essential for you to understand just how often each dice roll shows up on the table.  The reason the game is centered around the number 7 is simply because this number is rolled more than any other number.  You better believe the casino has calculated the odds for every single roll of the dice, and knows how and what their advantage over the player is for every bet. As you know, a die has six sides with six different values, and that two die are rolled every time.  A good guess would be that since there are six different numbers on two die’s then there would be twelve different possible outcomes of the roll.  However, a closer look reveals there are thirty-six different possible outcomes of the dice roll. Since there are two die, the same number can be rolled in many different ways. Just like calculating the odds of playing a lottery, all different number combinations must be considered.

The way to go about calculating these various combinations is by starting at the low end of possible rolls.  The lowest number on the dice is one.  If both die were rolled as one’s (snake eyes) the outcome would be 2.  This is one possible roll.  The next number up is a three.  To determine how many times this can be rolled, do some simple math.  There is only one equation that will produce this outcome: 2 + 1 = 3.   Therefore, there are two different possible outcomes:

Die One = 1, Die Two = 2  Or  Die One = 2, Die Two = 1

To further explain, let’s use the number seven as a possible outcome.  Simple math reveals the sum of 7 can be produced in three ways: 1 + 6, 2 + 5 and 3 + 4.  Going one step further, to calculate the number of times these outcomes can be rolled, simply multiply the outcome by 2 (representing two die) and you have the value of six - There are six ways to roll the number 7 with two die.  The combinations are shown here:

Die One = 1, Die Two = 6  Or  Die One = 2, Die Two = 5 Or  Die One = 3, Die Two = 4

Die One = 6, Die Two = 1  Or  Die One = 5, Die Two = 2 Or  Die One = 4, Die Two = 3

If we were to do the same for each roll outcome, we would see that the possible ways of rolling a 6 are the same as rolling an 8.  Likewise, a 5 and 9 have equal chance of being rolled, as do a 4 and 10, 3 and 11 and 2 and 12. Knowing this is important, for it will keep you in the know regarding what your payoffs may during any given wager.  Remember, just because your winning bet depends on your point being rolled before a seven, does not mean those odds are the same for every point.  Knowing this may just play a part if you have a choice of increasing your stake on a wager.  To calculate the percentage of you chances at rolling a certain number, divide the number of possible outcomes by the number of total dice outcomes (36).  For the number 7, this would show as 6/36 x 100% = 16.6%

It is very important to understand the odds and probabilities of the game’s outcome when you shoot the dice. There are 36 different outcomes possible with each throw of the dice. Players (especially new players) should never shoot the dice without prior knowledge of the probabilities and odds involved with the game. The most frequent throw is 7, this outcome covers 6 of the 36 possible outcomes. On the flip side of the coin, the rarest outcomes are 2 and 12. These only give you 1 of the 36 outcomes each. The odds of throwing a 7 or 11 are 6 and 2, respectively, making the chance that you will throw “a natural” on the Come Out Roll 8 out of 36. Now you might be asking, “what is the risk of losing on the Come Out Roll?”. Well, since the outcome of throwing a 2, 3 or 12 covers 4 out of 36 of the possible outcomes, that means, the chance of losing is about half the chance of winning. So far, we’ve covered about 1/3 of the possible outcomes. The rest come from bets that are after the Come Out Roll.

Those players who tend to be “Don’t Come” bettors have a little bit better of a chance of winning than Pass Line bettors. The house edge on a Pass Line Bet is 1.414% and the house edge on a Don’t Pass bet is only 1.402% - a little bit better than the pass line bet, but not much . In Craps you can add another bet to your original Pass Line Bet or your Don’t Pass Bet - such a bet is called the odds bet. A odds bet is a bet where you add more money (usually double your original wager) to your original wager if the original bet is not won or lost on the come out roll. You are allowed to place a odds bet once point has been established. There is no real house edge on a odds bet. Let me explain. If, for example, the point has been established as 5. The chances of winning a pass line bet is 4 to 6, so there is a 4 out of 36 chance of rolling point (in this case, a 5) again. This is put against a 6 out of 36 risk of rolling a 7. This means that if you win such a bet you will be paid according to true odds. So, an odds bet on the Pass Line bet will be paid 3 to 2 whether or not you have made a similar Don’t Pass Bet, and the odds of winning are on your side at 6 to 4. So a Don’t Pass Odds bet with 5 as the point only pay 2-3 ( true odds again ).